Αρχική IME GSEVEE Surveys Economic Climate Trends - February 2015
Economic Climate Trends - February 2015 PDF Εκτύπωση E-mail

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A. ENTEPRISES’ OVERALL ECONOMIC SITUATION

  1. The economic figures measured for enterprises (turnover, demand, orders, liquidity) show a ‘distance’ being kept from the optimistic perspective on overall prospects and the mood recorded in the present conditions. Most enterprises show negative performance in all figures. Barely 1 to 4 enterprises showed profits during the year before, while 37,3% showed losses. Enterprises with a high turnover and more employees (more than 5 persons) record a better performance in all figures.
  2. As far as the other figures are concerned, more than half enterprises find a decrease in turnover (53,2%),demand (55,2%), orders (58,9%) during this half as well. According to IME GSEVEE estimations, the overall fall in turnover during the year before reached 13% (February 2014 - February 2015). The overall fall in turnover since the beginning of crisis reaches 77 %.The trade sector shows the major losses.
  3. The findings on liquidity and investment indicators are more worrying, since 62,4% of enterprises  said that there has been a deterioration in the liquidity indicator, while barely a 12,1% proceeded in investments. In these categories, the comparative advantage seems to lay on new enterprises (up to 5 years in operation), with high turnover and more than 5 employees.  
  4. The fact that the Greek economy goes in some measure towards a more positive economic policy and macroeconomic performances path is shown in economic climate trends. The difference between negative and positive assessments gets down to -50,2 (from -54,0 in the previous survey and -85,5 in July 2012), while signs of stabilisation are shown in 1 out of 3 enterprises.
  5. The picture on enterprises’ prospects for the next half is more encouraging (at least for the period that the survey was carried out, that is February 2015), whereas a significant improvement is shown in the balance of positive - negative prospects for all indicators. In particular, only 3 out of 10 enterprises (31,4% from 56,1% in the July 2014 survey) show negative prospects for the next half, while the prospects for 1 out of 4 enterprises are shown getting improved. Regarding the turnover and demand indicators, negative to positive prospects ratio stands at 3:2, while with regard to liquidity, orders, and investments indicators this ratio is close to 2:1.

Β. CLOSURES - ENTREPRENEURIAL ACTIVITY

  1. Compared to July 2014, the negative prospects of enterprises on the half come significantly down. However, 1 out of 3 enterprises says that runs a significant risk of closing down. As a matter of fact, 3% of enterprises as a whole say that closure will be probable within the next 3 months. This means that closures will come close to 8,500 in the next half. 
  2. The risk of closure is significantly increased (>50%) for micro enterprises (with up to 1 employee and up to 50 thousand turnover) and enterprises active in Attica.

C. LIABILITIES -DEBTS

  1. There is no doubt that the major problem that enterprises faced in 2014 has been their standing inability to escape from the pitfall of the extremely high taxation kai social security liabilities. In particular, 38,1% of enterprises has arrears towards OAEE (the main social security fund for professionals), and 31,9% towards the tax authority (in constant increase). Noteworthily, more than 20% of enterprises estimate that it will not meet its taxation liabilities in 2015.
  2. With regard to the other categories of debts towards the public sector, ¼ enterprises has arrears towards Public Utilities, while arrears towards IKA (social security contributions) have been significantly narrowed (13%).
  3. In the categories of debts towards the private sector, a decline of overindebtedness is observed. However, there are still arrears: by 23,8% of enterprises towards suppliers, 17,9% in rent, 15,7% in loan payments.
  4. Making use of the previous provision for 72 - 100 payments for debts towards the tax authority and social security funds is quite limited, as barely 1 out of 3 professionals with arrears has applied for being subject to this settlement, while 1 out of 3 considers applying. It is obvious that the new provision for 100 payments regarding taxation arrears, which has been recently voted, will to a large extent ease enterprises, however this is not the case for the settlement of   social security debts where there is still an oppressive framework which will not allow meeting current contributions and previous debts at the same time.

D. EMPLOYMENT

  1. The findings on employment trends follow the moderate performance and reservations that enterprises have for their future investment prospects. According to the results of the survey, it is estimated that during the previous half (second half of 2014) the loss of employment posts in SMEs came up to 40,000.
  2. In the next half, the lay-offs - recruitment ratio is expected to stand at 1:1,1 (while in February 2014 this ratio stood at 1:1,6), a fact that doesn’t foresee a proximate de-escalation of unemployment and shows the need of undertaking actions for an increase in employment.
  3. Given the fact that, according to IME GSEVEE estimations, 8,500 enterprises will be closing during the next half, this means that there is a risk for a loss of 20,000 employment posts in total (employers, self-employed, employees). Based on the current economic situation, the net employment flows are not expected to change significantly in the next half.  
  4. The difficulties that enterprises face with regard to paying wages, the working hours, and the form of employment are still valid without any solutions being provided for them. 44,4% of enterprises says that it faces difficulties in paying wages. Notably, the fact that the trends of choosing flexible forms of employment get solidified standing at figures above 40% (they have marginally been increased at 43%) show that priority of the new government should be an intervention in the field of real economy (investments, solid taxation system), and not upon the nominal figures.

Ε. CONCRETE ISSUES OF SMALL ENTEPRISES’ INTEREST

  1. This year also, the results of shops’ Sunday opening have been poor and disappointing, despite the relative stabilisation in the market. According to IME GSEVEE survey findings, barely 4% of enterprises showed increase in turnover as a result of Sunday opening. 7 in 10 enterprises are in principle against shops’ Sunday opening. Scrappy interventions that change without any orientation the economic environment do not help entrepreneurial activity.
  2. SMEs consider that an important instrument for the development and financing of small entrepreneurship is the creation of a small and medium-sized enterprises’ bank, as 73% evaluates this intervention being important. 33,1% considers that the swift implementation of this announcement should be a priority of the new government, while 40,3% evaluates this measure as a very important one. The significant liquidity problems and the lack of instruments for micro-finance actions targeted to the needs of the Greek SMEs determine the significant degree of the acceptance of this measure.

 F. SPECIAL ISSUE- POLITICAL SITUATION

  1. Regarding the portrayal of the economic climate, the new government seems to enjoy small enterprises’ confidence (44,1% is more optimistic on enterprise’s course). The aforementioned has to do certainly with the possibility of the government to make interventions on the national level which will lead to a growth track and on an international level to lead the country to a ‘decent compromise’ with the partners. As a matter of fact, 57,3% considers that this should be the negotiation tactics of the government. 
  2. One out of the most significant and urgent problems that the new government is called to solve swiftly is the reduction of high taxation, the settlement of social security and taxation debts, as well as managing credits policy (refinancing - settlement of past loans, access to liquidity).

 
Author

IME GSEVEE

MARC S.A.

 
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